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Russian House in Baku is the spies’ house, and vice versa

 

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Many countries establish cultural representations in other states with a clear goal: to promote their nation, showcase its history, culture, and modern achievements. Theoretically, “Russian Houses” — a project of the Russian Cooperation Agency (Rossotrudnichestvo) — are created for the same purpose. There’s such an office in Baku too. However, the problem lies in the fact that, in practice, “Russian Houses,” like other structures of Rossotrudnichestvo, are involved not only in promoting Russian culture but also in outright espionage.

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Azerbaijani ambassador summoned to Russian Foreign Ministry – Google Search

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Russian ambassador to Azerbaijan summoned to Foreign Ministry

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28 January 2025 23:20 (UTC+04:00)

Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Azerbaijan Mikhail Yevdokimov has been summoned to Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Azernews reports, via the ministry.

During the meeting, it was noted that the publication of disinformation articles and reports targeting our country by the Russian press, as well as by some official circles in Russia, has created misunderstandings and contradicts the content and spirit of the Declaration on Allied Interaction between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation.

It was recalled that the results of the preliminary investigation into the tragic crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane are known, work is underway to finalize the investigation, and Russia has openly stated its expectations regarding the incident.

As regards the information about the “Russian House” in the local press, it was stated that this was not an official position and that the activities of such organizations in the territory of Azerbaijan are based on the principle of reciprocity and must be carried out under the requirements of the legislation.

Russia reportedly summons Azerbaijani ambassador as bilateral relations continue to sour

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Yesterday, Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Rahman Mustafayev met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin. While the official statement by Russia’s Foreign Ministry said that they had ‘invited’ Mustafayev, some Azerbaijani media outlets wrote that he had been ‘summoned’.

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov has not yet commented on the circumstances of the meeting.

Although relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have long been stable, as illustrated by a high-profile visit from Russian President Vladimir Putin to Baku in August 2024, the crash of a Azerbaijan Airlines flight in December — which Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said was Russia’s fault — has caused those bilateral ties to fray.

The official web page of Russia’s Foreign Ministry stated that Galuzin had invited Mustafaev to discuss several issues between Azerbaijan and Russia. The Russian side emphasised the ‘absolute importance of building relations between Russia and Azerbaijan in the spirit of strategic partnership and alliance based on the declaration signed at the highest level on 22 February 2022, in the national interests of both states’.

‘In this regard, bewilderment was expressed over a series of recent anti-Russian publications in the Azerbaijani media, as well as in relation to the disinformation campaign against the Russian House in Baku. The absolute groundlessness of the accusations made was noted’, the ministry’s press release said.

The Russian House, known formally as Rossotrudnichestvo, is a state-funded organisation intended to administer foreign aid, promote Russian culture, and support Russians living abroad. As with other Russian government organisations, it was sanctioned by the EU after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Azerbaijan’s Russian House was established in July 1997, and has its headquarters in Baku, with two additional offices located in Khachmaz and Ganja.

On Friday, the pro-government media outlet Baku TV aired a report accusing the Russian House in Baku of engaging in anti-Azerbaijani espionage activities under the guise of cultural and humanitarian work. The report, citing ‘trusted sources’ and without disclosing details, alleged that the Russian cultural centre has been fostering inter-ethnic discord and operating as a hub for intelligence activities.

According to Azerbaijani journalist and political columnist Rauf Mirgadirov, the Russian House has been operating in Azerbaijan for many years and argued that it is no secret the Russian House serves the purposes of Russian intelligence.

Mirgadirov told OC Media that the proliferation of Russian agents of influence in Azerbaijan has long been openly acknowledged by the government and pro-government media.

‘If I am not mistaken, around two years ago, journalists released the names of the journalists and the NGOs who were, at the very least, agents of Russian influence. This was clear many years ago, and now we are enemies with Russia’, Mirgadirov said.

Even as bilateral ties worsen, Mirgadirov said that Aliyev would not let Azerbaijan’s relationship with Russia completely deteriorate.

‘Now, Azerbaijan’s relationship is also not good with the EU, but the economic relationship continues. It is not in Aliyev’s favour to also destroy the entire relationship with Russia. Aliyev would only turn away from Russia if Russia lost the [full-scale war with Ukraine], [or] if the government in Russia would be changed’.

The fatal Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in December, which many have said was the fault of Russian air defence missiles in Chechnya, was likely the highest-profile event that has worsened relations between the two countries.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry has so far not commented on the meeting between Mustafeyav and Galuzin, but the pro-government media outlet APA reported on it, mentioning only that the discussion concerned the plane crash. APA’s brief article highlighted that Russia’s Foreign Ministry had said there is a ‘need to complete the official investigation and publish its results to clarify all the circumstances of the tragedy’.

Mirgadirov also said that tension between Azerbaijan and Russia will continue for some time.

‘But then there will probably be some high-level discussions, and as a result of these discussions, there will supposedly be some statement about resolving the existing differences. And I would not say that the situation will return to normal, but the level of military action will not reach the point of conflict. This is in the interests of Ilham Aliyev’, Mirgadirov said.

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An experienced journalist, Aytan has worked with Azerbaijani, regional, and international media. Formerly with Meydan TV, she now lives in Georgia, where she focuses on investigative journalism, covering topics such as government accountability and domestic violence.

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Trump Can Bring the End of Putin’s Rule

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President Donald Trump revealed on his first day that he may be closer to delivering on a campaign promise than skeptics believed. As we show in our new, original economic analysis, Trump has the levers to force Vladimir Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war promptly if he dispenses with the Biden Administration’s tepid, inconsistent economic pressure.

On Trump’s first day in office, he publicly addressed his views on Putin’s invasion of Ukraine for the first time in weeks, during his Oval Office press conference. “I think Zelensky wants a peace deal, but I don’t know Putin wants a deal,” Trump said, “I think Russia is going to be in real trouble….I think Putin’s destroying Russia.”

Trump is right. As Russia falters on the battlefield, approaching 700,000 casualties, its reliance upon North Korean troops and Iranian drones, Putin has not advanced his military agenda and Putin’s war-fueled economy has drained the nation’s vitality across sectors. Putin has cut reinvestment in its industrial base and seized control of much private enterprise, cannibalizing its once mighty industrial strength. In short, he’s kept the furnace of Russia’s energy burning by tossing in the living room furniture.

Russia is in real trouble as its economy implodes, and Putin is destroying Russia. And even more importantly, the return of Trump could send Russia’s economy off the cliff, and Trump’s return could deal the death blow to the teetering Putin regime. Trump today said his sanctions had cut off Iran’s ability to finance the proxy terrorism of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis which Biden’s muted sanctions enforcement allowed. Similarly, with proper sanction enforcement, the Russian economy will be circling the drain by Easter.

Trump Issues a Series of Presidential Actions on Day 1

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That Trump’s return could end Putin’s rule seemed unimaginable weeks ago. Many supporters of Ukraine openly feared that Trump might force a bad peace deal on Ukraine tantamount to surrender, amid Trump’s oft-declared intention to “end” the war by his first day in office. But just as Trump has shown a willingness to evolve on business issues once he learned the facts, it appears Trump has similarly, pivoted his position on Putin once he learned just how weak the Russian economy really is.

Understanding the 1099-DIV Tax Form

Simply put, the Russian economy is imploding—with Putin cannibalizing the productive economy to fund his war machine. If Putin loses the spigot of windfall oil revenues which has been propping him up the last three years, then the Putin regime will almost certainly collapse. Putin has already drawn down Russia’s rainy day funds by depleting its once-formidable foreign exchange reserves, and nobody is willing to fund Russian government deficits by buying unwanted Russian bonds. Meanwhile, the Russian Ruble is collapsing as a currency that even China is dumping, the Russian central bank has run out of firepower, and Putin cannot cut spending unless he defunds his own expensive war machine. Russia cannot make up for lost oil exports as it has already lost 90% of its erstwhile natural gas exports, thanks to Europe finally moving away from Russian piped gas reliance. The country brings very little to the global economy other than energy exports.

Oil revenues represent a potent choke point over the Russian economy, and Trump has grasped the strength of this leverage in a way the Biden Administration did not. The outlook for Russia’s oil sales is now very different, and Russia’s outright economic collapse appears far more likely now. With Trump’s pledges to bring down oil prices and increase US domestic oil production by 3 million barrels a day, the world will no longer need Russian oil production the same way, and Putin will be feeling the pain because he will be selling at or below breakeven prices.

According to Saudi Aramco, the breakeven for drilling Russian oil is a whopping $44 per barrel, the highest of any major oil producer and twice as much as the cost of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, and other major oil producers—thanks in part to the inaccessibility of major Russian oil fields deep in the Arctic.

So between his elevated breakeven cost of $44 per barrel to drill oil, and expenses which we estimate to be around $20-$30 per barrel to get that oil to market, Putin will be losing money when the price of oil falls below current levels. Even beyond any pain Putin suffers from the price of oil falling organically; if Trump imposes any additional sanctions and export restrictions on Russian oil companies, as Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent advocated for during his confirmation hearing, then Putin will be all but begging for relief as his economy implodes with export revenues throttled.

History reminds us that this playbook of economic pressure on Russia has worked successfully before. Cold War ended largely through the unexpected implosion of Russia’s economy—which many experts did not see coming, but a vulnerability which Ronald Reagan, a leader defined more by intuition than careful analysis of the issues, grasped. Now, Trump has an opportunity to puncture Putin’s propaganda balloon and suffocate Russia’s economy to the point of collapse, if he chooses to do so.

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Prime Palestinian real estate: Trump’s proposed Gaza ‘clean out’ mixes policy and profits

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Prime Palestinian real estate: Trump’s proposed Gaza ‘clean out’ mixes policy and profits

At left, President Donald Trump speaks to reporters Saturday about his vision for a ‘clean out’ of Gaza, which would see its residents expelled to Egypt, Jordan, and other countries. | Trump photo: AP / Real estate ad: Harey Zahav via X

President Donald Trump proved that he’s no peacemaker when it comes to Israel’s genocidal war. He floated the idea of forcible expulsion for Palestinians Saturday, saying that Jordan, Egypt, and other Arab nations should take in refugees to “just clean out” the destroyed Gaza Strip and create a “clean slate.”

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Ex-Diddy Assistant Details ‘Wild King Nights’ Parties in ‘Fall of Diddy …

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Opinion: ‘Cooperation with China will severely impact Trump’s policy on Georgia’
Georgia-China relations and Trump According to Nodar Kharshiladze, founder of the Georgian Centre for Strategic Analysis (GSAC), strategic cooperation with China and Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s visit to Iran (for the funeral of the former president) will have a severely negative impact on Trump’s policy toward Georgia. The expert described this as a red line, beyond which sanctions could begin. EU suspends visa-free travel for Georgian diplomatic passport holders The visa-free regime remains in place for Georgian citizens with ordinary passports. Nodar Kharshiladze: “The policies pursued by Bidzina Ivanishvili and his party [‘Georgian Dream’] directly contradict the priorities of the Trump administration. This approach, centred on closer ties with the People’s Republic of China and Iran— including strategic bilateral cooperation with China and Irakli Kobakhidze’s visit to Iran—will have a severely negative impact on Trump’s policy toward Georgia. This is a red line. We should brace ourselves for new sanctions…” “Legislation must not undermine assembly freedom” – European Commissioner evaluates his visit to Georgia O’Flaherty commends the resilience of Georgian civil society and urges measures to address serious human rights violations
‘Russian House’ sparks new tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan-Russia tensions Tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan are escalating. Russia’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Azerbaijani ambassador to express dissatisfaction over a Baku TV report accusing the “Russian House” cultural centre in Baku of espionage activities. Meanwhile, a trial has begun involving an Azerbaijani citizen of Russian ethnicity accused of treason. According to some reports, the individual may have connections to the “Russian House.” EU suspends visa-free travel for Georgian diplomatic passport holders ‘Armenia faces choice: lead or follow others’ – IT specialist ‘Ter-Petrosyan, Kocharyan, and Sargsyan must also face justice’: View from Baku Azerbaijani ambassador summoned to Russian Foreign Ministry On January 27, Azerbaijani Ambassador Rahman Mustafayev was summoned to Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “The Russian side emphasized the unconditional importance of building relations between Russia and Azerbaijan in the spirit of strategic partnership and alliance, based on the Declaration signed at the highest level on February 22, 2022, in the national interests of both states. In this regard, concern was expressed over a series of recent anti-Russian publications in Azerbaijani media, as well as the disinformation campaign against the ‘Russian House’ in Baku. The baseless nature of these accusations was underscored,” the Russian Foreign Ministry stated. ‘Azerbaijani plane downed by Russian air defense system’: First semi-official version from Baku According to political analyst Farhad Mammadov, the fact that preliminary information has been made public suggests that Baku expects official recognition from Russian authorities of the incident, followed by steps such as an apology and compensation. The Russian Foreign Ministry also commented on the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash near the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on December 25, 2024. It emphasized the need to complete the official investigation and publicly release the findings to clarify all circumstances surrounding the tragedy. Rossotrudnichestvo Chief responds to Baku TV report Yevgeny Primakov, head of Rossotrudnichestvo, also reacted to the Baku TV report. “We are preparing a lawsuit to protect our business reputation. I would like to hear irrefutable evidence of this slander and lies from this government-funded Azerbaijani media outlet. Otherwise, we expect a retraction and an apology,” he stated. Primakov also noted that Rossotrudnichestvo had previously won similar cases in Germany regarding accusations against the Russian House in Berlin. “German media outlets had to issue retractions. We have experience with this,” he added. What was in Baku TV report? The private Azerbaijani television channel Baku TV aired a report last Friday accusing the Russian House in Baku of engaging in anti-Azerbaijani espionage activities under the guise of cultural and humanitarian work. Citing “trusted sources” without providing specifics, the report alleged that the Russian cultural center was promoting interethnic discord and acting as an intelligence hub. In the broadcast, the anchor stated, “Unfortunately, this is no longer the ‘Russian House’ but a house of Russian espionage.” While the report gained significant domestic attention, there have been no official comments on the matter. The Russian House, managed by Rossotrudnichestvo, officially operates as a cultural and humanitarian institution. Its headquarters in Azerbaijan is located on Uzeyir Hajibeyov Street in Baku, with additional centers in Khachmaz and Ganja. Baku TV is part of the pro-government Global Media Group (GMG), a media conglomerate that includes television channels, news agencies, and publications in Azerbaijan and abroad. Does Svetlichny have ties to the “Russian House”? A preliminary hearing was recently held at the Baku Court on Grave Crimes regarding the criminal case against Ivan Svetlichny, who is accused of treason. According to Report, the investigation into the case was conducted by Azerbaijan’s State Security Service. “The defendant, Ivan Nikolayevich Svetlichny, an Azerbaijani citizen, is suspected of deliberate treason in the form of espionage, undermining national security, sovereignty, and defense capabilities, as well as carrying out assignments for foreign intelligence services. The specific criminal acts he is accused of will be detailed during the next court hearing when the indictment is read. The hearing is scheduled for February 3,” the Report statement said. Ilham Aliyev: ‘Russia clearly seeks to bury the issue’ After Ilham Aliyev accused Russia of trying to cover up the downing of the passenger plane in an interview, Vladimir Putin called his Azerbaijani counterpart again. The pro-government Telegram channel Maiden Tower commented on a possible “hint” about Svetlichny’s case in the Baku TV report: “They say Baku TV is hinting at the case of Ivan Nikolayevich Svetlichny, who has been charged with treason and whose trial will be heard at the Baku Court on Grave Crimes on February 3. Whether Svetlichny is connected to the ‘Russian House’ in Baku or not, we’ll find out very soon.” Political analyst jailed for 13 years for espionage in favour of Russia Nazakat Mammadova In November last year, Nazakat Mammadova, who frequently appeared as a political commentator on various TV channels and websites, was sentenced to 13 years in prison on charges of treason. The 46-year-old was accused of collaborating with Russian intelligence services. Court materials alleged that she regularly traveled to Moscow, held secret meetings, and received payments in exchange for her work. The charges also included an attempt by Mammadova to recruit others into Russian intelligence services. Mammadova was arrested by Azerbaijan’s State Security Service (SSS) in October 2023. Notably, she had previously worked for the SSS herself. Mammadova denied all charges up until her sentencing. Expert opinion On “Russian House” Azerbaijani political analyst Farhad Mammadov believes that the Baku TV report served as a message to Russia about the potential consequences for the “Russian House” in Baku if, following the release of the initial report on the AZAL plane crash, Russia once again “betrays its commitments.” Фархад Мамедов “In Moscow, there is evident concern over recent reports in Azerbaijan’s private media about the activities of the Russian House in Baku—enough to summon Azerbaijan’s ambassador to the Russian Foreign Ministry. I see this report as a signal to Russia, demonstrating what might happen to the ‘Russian House’ in Baku if, after the release of the preliminary crash report on our plane, the Russian side once again ‘opts for betrayal.’ Baku is hedging its bets because Russia has left no alternative. The fact that data from the black boxes ended up in the hands of both Moscow and Baku was followed by the release of material ‘resembling the truth,’ which contained sacrilegious manipulation suggesting pilot error. Baku is not receiving any clear signals about Russia’s intentions following the publication of the report. This uncertainty leads to demonstrations of potential consequences for steps that fall outside the bounds of alliance. So, Mr. Galuzin [Russian Deputy Foreign Minister] might do well to focus more on Russia’s response to the crash report than on summoning Ambassador Mustafayev, who is hardly impressed by the so-called Russian school of diplomacy,” Mammadov remarked. On Primakov’s reaction Commenting on the statements made by Yevgeny Primakov, head of Rossotrudnichestvo, Azerbaijani political analyst Farhad Mammadov noted that instead of “hysterical rhetoric,” Primakov should explain what the “Russian House” in Baku did during the mourning period for the victims of the AZAL plane shot down by Russian air defenses. “Rossotrudnichestvo’s head, Primakov, threatens to sue a private Azerbaijani TV channel over a report about the ‘Russian House’ in Baku. He cites Germany as an example, claiming they won a similar case there. But Azerbaijan is not Germany. Instead of hysterical rhetoric, Primakov should have explained what the ‘Russian House’ in Baku did during the mourning period for the victims of the AZAL plane shot down by Russian air defenses, where Azerbaijani citizens perished. And the answer is—nothing! Rather than making baseless statements, it would be better to focus on addressing which Russian agency takes responsibility for deploying air defenses against a civilian aircraft and ‘blinding’ its control system. And which agency will pay compensation for the plane, the deceased, and the injured, including Russian citizens,” concluded the analyst.
Armenian, UAE officials discuss South Caucasus, Middle East  Armenpress
Pro-opposition TV station shutters broadcast for viewers outside Tbilisi
The opposition TV company Mtavari has reported that the channel has been turned off for all viewers based in Georgia’s regions and those watching abroad via satellite, adding that from February, most cable TV providers will stop broadcasting the channel.Mtavari claimed the reason for the crisis was due to Director Gogi Kurdadze’s refusal to transfer money to the service providers, and that bills have been accumulating in the sales accounts for months.‘[Kurdadze] does not allow these funds to be used for the benefit of the channel at all, and sends letters containing unfounded accusations and threats to our partner companies’, Mtavari’s statement read.The statement also highlighted that Kurdadze had been appointed by Mtavari’s co-founder Zaza Okuashvili, who they claim has been ‘systematically following the path characteristic of the Russian regime and gradually closing the channel, which for five years firmly maintained the status of the country’s most influential critical media outlet’.According to Mtavari, there has been no advertising on the channel for a month, and they lost all of their sponsors due to the expiration of the contract with the ‘sales house’. Their statement also claimed that Kurdadze, allegedly on the instructions of Okuashvili, has not been allowing for the renewal of contracts. Finally, they noted that the channel has stopped providing ratings indicators, and journalists, in most cases, are no longer able to conduct live broadcasts.‘The actions of Zaza Okuashvili and the director managed by him, Gogi Kurdadze, represent an attempt to intentionally damage the company and shut down critical media outlets, which serves the goals of the [ruling] Georgian Dream and clearly contain signs of a criminal offense’, the statement read.Okuashvili has not commented on the recent accusations.The local Media Advocacy Coalition expressed concern over Mtavari’s statement, saying they see the ongoing developments around the channel as ‘a serious threat to the functioning of free media’.‘Restricting the functioning of critical media poses a threat not only to the functioning of specific media outlets, but also directly harms the coverage of ongoing processes in the country and the public’s right to be informed about important events’, the coalition’s statement read.They called on Okuashvili and Kurdadze to stop taking steps that are aimed at restricting and ultimately terminating the television network’s activities, instead of working to strengthen the company.‘It is especially important that the rights of the media are protected during this critical period, including those of your television employees, who have repeatedly become objects of violence and attacks, and that the quality of public awareness and coverage are not reduced or coverage is limited’.Rumours about the channel’s financial difficulties and its possible closure have been circulating for several months.On 11 December 2024, Mtavari’s General Director Giorgi Gabunia announced that the station was facing closure, accusing Okuashvili of sabotaging the channel.Georgian pro-opposition TV channel ‘faces closure’ amid internal conflictLive on air, Mtavari’s director accused a major shareholder of sabotage, claiming that he was colluding with Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili.OC MediaShota KinchaAt an emergency briefing organised by Gabunia that month, he accused Okuashvili of deciding to ‘shut down’ the channel, a plan being executed, according to Gabunia, through the director, Kurdadze.Gabunia stated that this was ‘exactly what Bidzina Ivanishvili needs today’, seemingly alluding to the antagonism of the Georgian billionaire and Georgian Dream founder, who has been widely described as the country’s informal ruler, towards independent media critical of the government.In response to Gabunia’s allegations, Okuashvili accused Gabunia of having his own ties to Ivanishvili. He dismissed claims of his own collusion with the billionaire as ‘comical’, pointing out that he was engaged in ‘several international legal battles’ against him.Okuashvili has been embroiled in several conflicts with Georgian Dream since 2018, most notably the Omega Tapes scandal.The purported secret recordings, which were leaked publicly, allegedly captured conversations with a Georgian Dream official that revealed extortion attempts targeting Okuashvili on behalf of Ivanishvili.Also in 2018, Okuashvili was accused of exploiting a group of Georgian journalists during a financial dispute with the government.Secret audio recordings suggest racket in Georgian GovernmentA secret audio recording released on Friday suggests that former Georgian sports minister Levan Kipiani attempted to extort expensive cars for other ministers from Omega Group, a business group that owns local TV channel Iberia TV. The authenticity of the recording has not yet been verified, but…OC MediaOC Media
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, during the meeting with the Armenian community of Zurich on January 24, called for a re-examination of what happened during the Armenian Genocide to understand why it happened, how it was perceived, why the question of the Armenian Genocide was not part of the agenda in 1939, and why it appeared only in 1950. Alpha News spoke with genocide scholar Suren Manukyan on this topic. “Genocide is not a reality or a phenomenon; it is a political crime. And being a political crime, naturally, it receives, has received, and will continue to receive political assessment. This topic will always occupy an active place in politics. In this regard, I believe, when we talk about Genocide, we have a specific approach. Pashinian’s recent remarks in Zurich might not have been so controversial if not for the context, if not for his earlier thoughts and actions. We feel threatened, realizing that a person can make a mistake once, make a wrong statement, but when it is systematic and the same topic is raised regularly and with the same emphasis, we realize that there is a deeper process going on here, about which we do not have an exact idea,” Manukyan said. The genocide scholar emphasized that Pashinyan, in his remarks, tries to place the blame on the victims. “Unfortunately, we often encounter manipulation. In other words, a sentence is voiced that contains, among other things, the truth. On the one hand, it may seem like an innocent explanation for why it happened. But when you compare it to his previous statements, which attempt to place the blame on the victims themselves, you begin to realize what he meant. If you think back to his messages of April 24, 2019-2020, you can see in them a demand for recognition at the highest level. But when you see that in just 4 years the rhetoric has dramatically changed, it is already difficult to accept, since the one who says all this is the same person, and it is this person who decides and implements the foreign policy issues of our country,” Manukyan concluded. The post Pashinyan tries to place blame on victims of Armenian Genocide — Suren Manukyan appeared first on Alphanews.
The absence of Azerbaijan’s delegation at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) winter session has sparked questions about the country’s participation in the European institution. According to sources in Azerbaijan’s parliament, PACE did not send an official invitation to Azerbaijan, as participation requires such an invitation to…
‘Advancing toward modern army’: Armenia celebrates 33 years of armed forces  JAMnews
Trump Can Bring the End of Putin’s Rule
Michael_Novakhov shared this story . President Donald Trump revealed on his first day that he may be closer to delivering on a campaign promise than skeptics believed. As we show in our new, original economic analysis, Trump has the levers to force Vladimir Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war promptly if he dispenses with the Biden Administration’s tepid, inconsistent economic pressure.On Trump’s first day in office, he publicly addressed his views on Putin’s invasion of Ukraine for the first time in weeks, during his Oval Office press conference. “I think Zelensky wants a peace deal, but I don’t know Putin wants a deal,” Trump said, “I think Russia is going to be in real trouble….I think Putin’s destroying Russia.”Trump is right. As Russia falters on the battlefield, approaching 700,000 casualties, its reliance upon North Korean troops and Iranian drones, Putin has not advanced his military agenda and Putin’s war-fueled economy has drained the nation’s vitality across sectors. Putin has cut reinvestment in its industrial base and seized control of much private enterprise, cannibalizing its once mighty industrial strength. In short, he’s kept the furnace of Russia’s energy burning by tossing in the living room furniture.Russia is in real trouble as its economy implodes, and Putin is destroying Russia. And even more importantly, the return of Trump could send Russia’s economy off the cliff, and Trump’s return could deal the death blow to the teetering Putin regime. Trump today said his sanctions had cut off Iran’s ability to finance the proxy terrorism of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis which Biden’s muted sanctions enforcement allowed. Similarly, with proper sanction enforcement, the Russian economy will be circling the drain by Easter.Trump Issues a Series of Presidential Actions on Day 10 seconds of 15 secondsVolume 0%That Trump’s return could end Putin’s rule seemed unimaginable weeks ago. Many supporters of Ukraine openly feared that Trump might force a bad peace deal on Ukraine tantamount to surrender, amid Trump’s oft-declared intention to “end” the war by his first day in office. But just as Trump has shown a willingness to evolve on business issues once he learned the facts, it appears Trump has similarly, pivoted his position on Putin once he learned just how weak the Russian economy really is. Simply put, the Russian economy is imploding—with Putin cannibalizing the productive economy to fund his war machine. If Putin loses the spigot of windfall oil revenues which has been propping him up the last three years, then the Putin regime will almost certainly collapse. Putin has already drawn down Russia’s rainy day funds by depleting its once-formidable foreign exchange reserves, and nobody is willing to fund Russian government deficits by buying unwanted Russian bonds. Meanwhile, the Russian Ruble is collapsing as a currency that even China is dumping, the Russian central bank has run out of firepower, and Putin cannot cut spending unless he defunds his own expensive war machine. Russia cannot make up for lost oil exports as it has already lost 90% of its erstwhile natural gas exports, thanks to Europe finally moving away from Russian piped gas reliance. The country brings very little to the global economy other than energy exports.Oil revenues represent a potent choke point over the Russian economy, and Trump has grasped the strength of this leverage in a way the Biden Administration did not. The outlook for Russia’s oil sales is now very different, and Russia’s outright economic collapse appears far more likely now. With Trump’s pledges to bring down oil prices and increase US domestic oil production by 3 million barrels a day, the world will no longer need Russian oil production the same way, and Putin will be feeling the pain because he will be selling at or below breakeven prices.According to Saudi Aramco, the breakeven for drilling Russian oil is a whopping $44 per barrel, the highest of any major oil producer and twice as much as the cost of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, and other major oil producers—thanks in part to the inaccessibility of major Russian oil fields deep in the Arctic.So between his elevated breakeven cost of $44 per barrel to drill oil, and expenses which we estimate to be around $20-$30 per barrel to get that oil to market, Putin will be losing money when the price of oil falls below current levels. Even beyond any pain Putin suffers from the price of oil falling organically; if Trump imposes any additional sanctions and export restrictions on Russian oil companies, as Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent advocated for during his confirmation hearing, then Putin will be all but begging for relief as his economy implodes with export revenues throttled.History reminds us that this playbook of economic pressure on Russia has worked successfully before. Cold War ended largely through the unexpected implosion of Russia’s economy—which many experts did not see coming, but a vulnerability which Ronald Reagan, a leader defined more by intuition than careful analysis of the issues, grasped. Now, Trump has an opportunity to puncture Putin’s propaganda balloon and suffocate Russia’s economy to the point of collapse, if he chooses to do so.
Baku Jewish community marks International Holocaust Remembrance Day  Arutz Sheva
Speech by President Ilham Aliyev during a meeting focused on transportation issues: At today’s meeting, we will discuss the development of transport infrastructure in Baku and its suburban areas. There is a need for this. Although a lot of work was done in this direction and major infrastructure projects were implemented in recent years, there are still traffic jams in Baku, and unfortunately, the number of traffic jams is increasing year after year. There are natural reasons for this. The population of our country, including Baku, is growing every year. Over the past 30 years, the population of Azerbaijan has increased from 7 million to 10 million, even above that. Of course, the city’s road infrastructure, including the metro, cannot absorb this growth. We have always kept transport issues in the spotlight, and many large projects have been implemented in Baku over the past 15 years, new metro stations have been put into operation, road junctions, tunnels, bridges have been built, new roads have been laid. If we had not done this work, transport in Baku would be completely paralyzed today. But we still see that there will be great benefit in adopting another major program. For this purpose, I gave the Ministry of Digital Development and Transport relevant instructions some time ago to prepare a state program, and work on this program has been carried out for several months. Today we will discuss these issues and make the necessary decisions. As for transport issues, I must say that a number of transport projects have been implemented throughout the country in recent years: rural roads, intercity roads, highways. As the years go by, the previous situation tends to be forgotten. However, if we look back 20 years, we will remember the state of our roads at that time. Even the main roads of Baku hardly met any standards. We built new roads and connected almost all cities with modern roads. We connected all our borders with modern highways. The rate of repair and construction of rural roads has reached around 85-90 percent, and every year, we allocate funds for these purposes. At the same time, the geographical location of Azerbaijan is such that international transport corridors pass through our territory, and this is because we have been able to effectively use this geographical location. But geographical location alone does not mean that any country can become a transport hub. However, we have consistently shown interest in the passage of international transport corridors through Azerbaijan, through our territory, made efforts, and carried out practical work. Today, it is impossible to imagine the transport map of Eurasia without Azerbaijan, without its transport infrastructure. Currently, the East-West and North-South transport corridors pass through our territory. The volume of cargo transported along these corridors is increasing by the year. In addition to physical infrastructure, other steps have been taken to ensure more efficient transportation of cargo, including attention paid to issues of digitalization. New formats of cooperation with neighboring countries have been created and joint ventures, joint companies have been established. In short, Azerbaijan today is one of the indispensable transport centers of Eurasia. I should also note that countries that usually have the status of transport centers are those that have access to open seas. We do not have access to the world ocean. However, despite this, as a result of the work we have done, we have turned Azerbaijan into an indispensable transport center. Work continues, and additional measures are now taken on both the North-South and East-West transport corridors. Because the volume of cargo previously calculated suggests that a larger volume of cargo will pass. This is an issue related to various reasons. But the fact is that we have now attracted and will continue to attract additional investment to increase the carrying capacity of these corridors. Among the new projects, I would like to mention the Zangezur corridor. The Zangezur corridor project was put forward by Azerbaijan. After our Victory in the Second Karabakh War, this issue was put on the international agenda, in the international lexicon, and today the Zangezur corridor is already an accepted expression, an accepted term in the world. Of course, we are taking practical steps to open this corridor. True, the Armenian side has been demonstrating an unconstructive position on this issue for more than four years. In fact, it is not fulfilling the obligations it assumed after the November 10 capitulation. It was explicitly stated there that there should be a transport connection between the main part of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, which is its integral part. Armenia, however, does not comply with this, and by citing various excuses and putting forward various unrealistic and absurd projects, it simply wants to mislead the international community and is engaged in manipulations. You have probably heard that they have come up with the so-called “Peace Crossroads” project, and now there is not a single country in the world they have not shared this project with. However, this so-called project is not worth two cents without Azerbaijan, and we have repeatedly conveyed this to the Armenian side through various channels. If you truly want to implement this project, first of all, you should approach Azerbaijan. Because without us, it is just a piece of paper, and our terms are fair, grounded in international law and the obligations Armenia itself has undertaken. I would once again advise the Armenian leadership to carefully read the November 10 capitulation act and pay special attention to the paragraph I mentioned. I repeat that their so-called project is completely irrelevant without Azerbaijan. They are simply stalling for time and trying to confuse the international community. Once again, they have given rise to dirty campaigns against Azerbaijan in various circles. As a result, to this day, we do not have the shortest and most convenient connection with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, an integral part of Azerbaijan. True, we are meeting the needs of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic in various ways. First of all, cargo and passengers go through the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran. We also have other opportunities. But they are economically less viable and the road is longer. In principle, this connection can also be established through the territories of Georgia and Türkiye, but if there is the most convenient way and opportunity, of course, this issue is a priority. However, when we see that the Armenian side is still acting insincerely, a corresponding agreement has been reached with the Islamic Republic of Iran and a project is now underway on the construction of a road bridge bypassing Armenia. It will probably be completed this year. The second bridge will also be built, this time in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The first bridge is under construction in the Zangilan district. Thus, Armenia will continue to be a dead-end country and their dreams of becoming a transit state will never be materialized. They will be the losing side, not us. Therefore, this issue will be in the spotlight, and both on the international stage and in bilateral contacts with Armenia, we always emphasize one point: there must be unhindered passage from Azerbaijan to Azerbaijan. There must be smooth and unrestricted passage from Azerbaijan to Azerbaijan, without any inspections or obstacles. This is our demand. The Soviet authorities took West Zangezur from us in November 1920 and committed a crime against the Azerbaijani people. That was not the first and last crime. Secondly, if we go in sequence after that, another crime was the creation of the so-called “Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region” on the territory of Azerbaijan. The crime before that was the resettlement of Armenians to the territory of Azerbaijan by Tsarist Russia. The crime before that was the murder of the Karabakh Khan, who was guaranteed to exercise his leadership in Karabakh. Other crimes of the 20th century are also in sight. The Khojaly genocide, January 20, and the occupation of our lands in the early 1990s. So we have not forgotten this, the Azerbaijani people have not forgotten this. We have not forgotten Zangezur and we never will. I repeat that we have no territorial claims to Armenia. However, Armenia must fulfill its obligations and provide unhindered passage from Azerbaijan to Azerbaijan. As for the transport infrastructure of Baku, I will come to this issue now. But before we do that, I would like to bring to the attention of the public some of the work related to transport carried out in Azerbaijan in the past 20 years. In particular, over the last 20 years, 21,000 kilometers of highways have been built and repaired in Azerbaijan. 335 bridges and overpasses, 45 tunnels, 163 overhead and underground passages have been built. I am returning to what I said again. If we had not done this work, it is not difficult to imagine what state the transport infrastructure of our country would be in now. The following work has been done regarding the railway infrastructure: more than 1,500 kilometers of railways have been built, 1,800 kilometers have been repaired, new trains, and wagons have been purchased, the Absheron circular line, which is more than 90 kilometers long, has been put into operation. The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway has been built. I must also note that this project was implemented at the initiative of the Azerbaijani state. When we sought to implement this project, we faced significant resistance. I can now state this. In particular, the United States opposed it. The reason was again their pro-Armenian policies. Because it was believed that this project would exclude Armenia. For this reason, the Georgian leadership at the time faced heavy pressure from the United States to prevent Georgia from agreeing to it. We had been negotiating with the Georgian side for several years, and finally, we succeeded in reaching an agreement. In particular, I personally discussed this issue repeatedly with high-ranking representatives of the American state and stated that they should not hinder us. This is a strategic project for us, and other countries, including their own allies, will also benefit from this project in the future. Life has shown that, as always, we were right. Today, America’s allies in Europe are very interested in the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. In general, they are also very interested in the transportation of cargo from Central Asia to Europe and vice versa, passing through the territory of Azerbaijan. If the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway had not been built, all this would have been completely impossible. Not only did we build the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway by reaching an agreement with Türkiye and Georgia, we also gave the Georgian state a loan of about one billion dollars at a very low interest rate at that time. In fact, work was carried out on the territory of Georgia with the help of these funds. The railway on the territory of Azerbaijan was modernized and Türkiye also built a section on its territory. So, a new road was opened, which today carries cargo from various countries to the White Sea, to Europe and to Türkiye. Then we saw that the carrying capacity of this road was not sufficient. Again, last year, the expansion of this road was completed at the expense of Azerbaijan and its carrying capacity was increased to 5 million tons. In other words, I believe that this is one of the most important projects implemented in our geography in recent years, and many countries will continue to benefit from it. At one time, those officials of the U.S. Department of State opposed us – I don’t know where they are now, their names have not gone down in history – but we achieved this by showing serious determination. I would like to mention the Sumgayit-Yalama railway among the efforts to rehabilitate and modernize existing roads, as well as to increase the transportation capacity and train speeds. The construction of this road has already reached 80% completion, and it is expected to be fully operational in the near future. The road we are currently working on – the Alat-Astara road – is virtually known to exist, but considering that the volume of cargo on the North-South corridor will sharply increase in the future, the expansion of this road is also on the agenda, and some funding has already been allocated this year. Several new train routes have been identified to ensure connectivity between Azerbaijani cities. Baku-Gabala. The railway line had never reached the city of Gabala before. We built it, this line is also very necessary. The Baku-Balakan railway has resumed its operation, so has Baku-Aghstafa. That is, those who know the geography of Azerbaijan see that these railways actually connect our country with our western border, with northwestern border and the city of Gabala. The cities located on all these lines are also naturally covered. Over the past 20 years, eight international airports have been built in Azerbaijan. Four of them were there, but their condition was not satisfactory. The airports of Baku, Nakhchivan, Ganja, and Lankaran have been reconstructed. The Lankaran airport was practically not used, but the Baku, Nakhchivan and Ganja airports were used. Both the runways and terminal complexes of these four airports meet the most modern standards. At the same time, four new airports have been built – Gabala, Zagatala, Fuzuli, and Zangilan. The ninth international airport will be put into operation in Lachin this year. All these airports are capable of receiving cargo and passenger aircraft of any weight. The runway is at least three kilometers long. So, as I have said, the ninth airport will be put into operation this year, and we are completely closing this issue. I should also note that Heydar Aliyev International Airport transported a record number of passengers last year – more than seven million. According to the information I have received, the analysis conducted by the ministry shows that this figure will increase further, and it was proposed that a new terminal complex be built at Heydar Aliyev International Airport. I also supported the idea. Work is now underway on the project and feasibility study of this new terminal. This work has already been started and it will allow us the opportunity to receive a higher number of passengers in the future. So, we will become an international center for air transport as well. Considering that a large cargo terminal is currently under construction in Alat, its cargo reception capacity will be 1 million tons. In other words, it is not too difficult to see the work we are doing in this direction of transport. One of the important projects of recent years has been the construction of a new Trade Seaport. We removed the old port from the city center. Landscaping work will now be carried out in that area, recreation areas and various facilities will be built. So this zone will make an additional contribution to the overall development of our city and our people will also benefit from it. Work is underway on a master plan for this area, which is adjacent to the White City Boulevard. The cargo handling capacity of the first phase of the new Trade Seaport was planned at 15 million tons. However, we can already see that the volume of cargo will be much larger. An order has already been given and we are starting work this year. International consultants have been involved to prepare and come up with a new project. We need to increase the port’s capacity to 25 million tons, and perhaps this will not be enough for us either. Because the volume of cargo on the East-West transport corridor is growing so rapidly that we must do this work in accordance with that. In order to concentrate all these transport issues in one center, a new organization – the AZCON organization – was recently established by my decision. It will take into account all these coordination and future development plans, including investment. Since 2008, seven new metro stations have been built, and the State Program to be adopted provides for the construction of 10 new metro stations. A total of 266 new generation metro cars have been purchased, and this process is ongoing. Hundreds of new passenger buses have been brought to the country, and the assembly of electric buses will begin at the end of the year, followed by the increase in localization. A total of 161 new electric buses have already been brought to Baku, and in the near future Baku residents will see the benefits of this. Because it is vehicles that pollute the air the most, especially large vehicles. Therefore, of course, we take into account people’s concerns in this matter. The shipyard was also built in recent years, about 10, maybe 12 years ago. Previously, we bought ships from abroad, and then I decided that a shipyard should definitely be built in Baku. Again, life shows how right this idea was. Today, it is impossible to buy ships from traditional sources, from where we used to buy them. We have now achieved a point when the shipyard is operating at full capacity. Currently, six ships of different sizes are under construction there. In parallel, we have raised our activities in the Black Sea to a new level. Whereas previously small-sized ships belonging to the Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company used to operate there, now four large tankers – Aframax type tankers – with a carrying capacity of 100,000 tons – have been purchased, which both benefits us and expands the capabilities of our country. Transport projects are the backbone of the work carried out in liberated territories. About 3,400 kilometers of highways – so far, 44 highway projects have either been completed or are still underway. In addition, 45 tunnels, 447 bridges, and 16 viaducts are planned. Of these, 28 tunnels, 392 bridges, and 9 viaducts have already been completed. Some 60 percent of the Horadiz-Aghband railway has been completed, and 94 percent of the Barda-Aghdam railway has been constructed. These are just the main projects that I bring to the attention of the public, and these figures say and show everything. They show to what extent we have implemented transport projects. If we had not implemented them, the connections between Baku, other cities, and between cities of the country in general could have completely paralyzed our transport capabilities. But let me say again that life does not stand still. We will now adopt a new state program. All transport projects across the country, including in the liberated territories, will continue to be implemented. Everything is going according to plan. The necessary funds have been allocated for these purposes in this year’s Investment Program. As for the city of Baku and the territories around it, let me say again that the adoption of a new state program is necessary. This will be a very large program, a program with a large financial capacity. It will be a program that requires joint activity and efficient work of all relevant agencies. This is why I have called today’s meeting so that we can discuss these issues, so that they are presented to us, so that the public can also understand what is expected and what work should be done in which years. At the same time, representatives of the public can also give their recommendations to relevant state bodies – the Presidential Administration, the Cabinet of Ministers, the Ministry of Digital Development and Transport. We may have not included something in this program. So suggestions from the ground will also be taken into account. Source
A recent decree by US President Donald Trump suspending foreign aid to other countries allegedly led to the cessation of funding for Kurdish armed groups in Syria and a serious restriction on their…
EU Observers Move Closer to Azerbaijan-Armenia Border, Armed Presence Noted
EU Observers Move Closer to Azerbaijan-Armenia Border, Armed Presence Notedhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRQXFWngRGAhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qI3yo_EYewYhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlhmqtYdye0https://twitter.com/bakutvinterhttps://www.facebook.com/bakutvinternationalhttps://baku.tv/enEU Observers Move Closer to Azerbaijan-Armenia Border, Armed Presence Noted#azerbaijan #armenia #zangilan #bakutvinternational #news #breakingnews EU Observers Move Closer to Azerbaijan-Armenia Border, Armed Presence Noted
Russia reportedly summons Azerbaijani ambassador as bilateral relations continue to sour
Yesterday, Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Rahman Mustafayev met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin. While the official statement by Russia’s Foreign Ministry said that they had ‘invited’ Mustafayev, some Azerbaijani media outlets wrote that he had been ‘summoned’.Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov has not yet commented on the circumstances of the meeting.Although relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have long been stable, as illustrated by a high-profile visit from Russian President Vladimir Putin to Baku in August 2024, the crash of a Azerbaijan Airlines flight in December — which Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said was Russia’s fault — has caused those bilateral ties to fray.The official web page of Russia’s Foreign Ministry stated that Galuzin had invited Mustafaev to discuss several issues between Azerbaijan and Russia. The Russian side emphasised the ‘absolute importance of building relations between Russia and Azerbaijan in the spirit of strategic partnership and alliance based on the declaration signed at the highest level on 22 February 2022, in the national interests of both states’.‘In this regard, bewilderment was expressed over a series of recent anti-Russian publications in the Azerbaijani media, as well as in relation to the disinformation campaign against the Russian House in Baku. The absolute groundlessness of the accusations made was noted’, the ministry’s press release said.The Russian House, known formally as Rossotrudnichestvo, is a state-funded organisation intended to administer foreign aid, promote Russian culture, and support Russians living abroad. As with other Russian government organisations, it was sanctioned by the EU after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.Azerbaijan’s Russian House was established in July 1997, and has its headquarters in Baku, with two additional offices located in Khachmaz and Ganja.On Friday, the pro-government media outlet Baku TV aired a report accusing the Russian House in Baku of engaging in anti-Azerbaijani espionage activities under the guise of cultural and humanitarian work. The report, citing ‘trusted sources’ and without disclosing details, alleged that the Russian cultural centre has been fostering inter-ethnic discord and operating as a hub for intelligence activities.According to Azerbaijani journalist and political columnist Rauf Mirgadirov, the Russian House has been operating in Azerbaijan for many years and argued that it is no secret the Russian House serves the purposes of Russian intelligence.Mirgadirov told OC Media that the proliferation of Russian agents of influence in Azerbaijan has long been openly acknowledged by the government and pro-government media.‘If I am not mistaken, around two years ago, journalists released the names of the journalists and the NGOs who were, at the very least, agents of Russian influence. This was clear many years ago, and now we are enemies with Russia’, Mirgadirov said.Even as bilateral ties worsen, Mirgadirov said that Aliyev would not let Azerbaijan’s relationship with Russia completely deteriorate.‘Now, Azerbaijan’s relationship is also not good with the EU, but the economic relationship continues. It is not in Aliyev’s favour to also destroy the entire relationship with Russia. Aliyev would only turn away from Russia if Russia lost the [full-scale war with Ukraine], [or] if the government in Russia would be changed’.The fatal Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in December, which many have said was the fault of Russian air defence missiles in Chechnya, was likely the highest-profile event that has worsened relations between the two countries.Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry has so far not commented on the meeting between Mustafeyav and Galuzin, but the pro-government media outlet APA reported on it, mentioning only that the discussion concerned the plane crash. APA’s brief article highlighted that Russia’s Foreign Ministry had said there is a ‘need to complete the official investigation and publish its results to clarify all the circumstances of the tragedy’.Deadly Azerbaijan Airlines crash sheds light on twin crises of migrant labour, border closureThe majority of victims were Azerbaijani citizens going to Russia for work.OC MediaAytan FarhadovaMirgadirov also said that tension between Azerbaijan and Russia will continue for some time.‘But then there will probably be some high-level discussions, and as a result of these discussions, there will supposedly be some statement about resolving the existing differences. And I would not say that the situation will return to normal, but the level of military action will not reach the point of conflict. This is in the interests of Ilham Aliyev’, Mirgadirov said.Putin visits Azerbaijan to discuss economic cooperation and conflictRussian President Vladimir Putin has visited Baku, with the two countries signing a number of trade and cooperation agreements. Putin began his two-day visit to Azerbaijan on Sunday night, and was reported to have stayed the night at President Ilham Aliyev’s residence in Zagulba, Baku. Putin’s…OC MediaAytan Farhadova
Abbas Araghchi: Israel and the US must be crazy to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities  Armenia News
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Trump Can Bring the End of Putin’s Rule

President Donald Trump revealed on his first day that he may be closer to delivering on a campaign promise than skeptics believed. As we show in our new, original economic analysis, Trump has the levers to force Vladimir Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war promptly if he dispenses with the Biden Adm
Trump Can Bring the End of Putin’s Rule
Michael_Novakhov shared this story . President Donald Trump revealed on his first day that he may be closer to delivering on a campaign promise than skeptics believed. As we show in our new, original economic analysis, Trump has the levers to force Vladimir Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war promptly if he dispenses with the Biden Administration’s tepid, inconsistent economic pressure.On Trump’s first day in office, he publicly addressed his views on Putin’s invasion of Ukraine for the first time in weeks, during his Oval Office press conference. “I think Zelensky wants a peace deal, but I don’t know Putin wants a deal,” Trump said, “I think Russia is going to be in real trouble….I think Putin’s destroying Russia.”Trump is right. As Russia falters on the battlefield, approaching 700,000 casualties, its reliance upon North Korean troops and Iranian drones, Putin has not advanced his military agenda and Putin’s war-fueled economy has drained the nation’s vitality across sectors. Putin has cut reinvestment in its industrial base and seized control of much private enterprise, cannibalizing its once mighty industrial strength. In short, he’s kept the furnace of Russia’s energy burning by tossing in the living room furniture.Russia is in real trouble as its economy implodes, and Putin is destroying Russia. And even more importantly, the return of Trump could send Russia’s economy off the cliff, and Trump’s return could deal the death blow to the teetering Putin regime. Trump today said his sanctions had cut off Iran’s ability to finance the proxy terrorism of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis which Biden’s muted sanctions enforcement allowed. Similarly, with proper sanction enforcement, the Russian economy will be circling the drain by Easter.Trump Issues a Series of Presidential Actions on Day 10 seconds of 15 secondsVolume 0%That Trump’s return could end Putin’s rule seemed unimaginable weeks ago. Many supporters of Ukraine openly feared that Trump might force a bad peace deal on Ukraine tantamount to surrender, amid Trump’s oft-declared intention to “end” the war by his first day in office. But just as Trump has shown a willingness to evolve on business issues once he learned the facts, it appears Trump has similarly, pivoted his position on Putin once he learned just how weak the Russian economy really is. Simply put, the Russian economy is imploding—with Putin cannibalizing the productive economy to fund his war machine. If Putin loses the spigot of windfall oil revenues which has been propping him up the last three years, then the Putin regime will almost certainly collapse. Putin has already drawn down Russia’s rainy day funds by depleting its once-formidable foreign exchange reserves, and nobody is willing to fund Russian government deficits by buying unwanted Russian bonds. Meanwhile, the Russian Ruble is collapsing as a currency that even China is dumping, the Russian central bank has run out of firepower, and Putin cannot cut spending unless he defunds his own expensive war machine. Russia cannot make up for lost oil exports as it has already lost 90% of its erstwhile natural gas exports, thanks to Europe finally moving away from Russian piped gas reliance. The country brings very little to the global economy other than energy exports.Oil revenues represent a potent choke point over the Russian economy, and Trump has grasped the strength of this leverage in a way the Biden Administration did not. The outlook for Russia’s oil sales is now very different, and Russia’s outright economic collapse appears far more likely now. With Trump’s pledges to bring down oil prices and increase US domestic oil production by 3 million barrels a day, the world will no longer need Russian oil production the same way, and Putin will be feeling the pain because he will be selling at or below breakeven prices.According to Saudi Aramco, the breakeven for drilling Russian oil is a whopping $44 per barrel, the highest of any major oil producer and twice as much as the cost of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, and other major oil producers—thanks in part to the inaccessibility of major Russian oil fields deep in the Arctic.So between his elevated breakeven cost of $44 per barrel to drill oil, and expenses which we estimate to be around $20-$30 per barrel to get that oil to market, Putin will be losing money when the price of oil falls below current levels. Even beyond any pain Putin suffers from the price of oil falling organically; if Trump imposes any additional sanctions and export restrictions on Russian oil companies, as Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent advocated for during his confirmation hearing, then Putin will be all but begging for relief as his economy implodes with export revenues throttled.History reminds us that this playbook of economic pressure on Russia has worked successfully before. Cold War ended largely through the unexpected implosion of Russia’s economy—which many experts did not see coming, but a vulnerability which Ronald Reagan, a leader defined more by intuition than careful analysis of the issues, grasped. Now, Trump has an opportunity to puncture Putin’s propaganda balloon and suffocate Russia’s economy to the point of collapse, if he chooses to do so.

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Trump is pausing federal loans and grants as his administration reviews spending

The White House is pausing federal grants and loans as President Donald Trump’s administration begins an across-the-board ideological review of its spending.