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Many countries establish cultural representations in other states with a clear goal: to promote their nation, showcase its history, culture, and modern achievements. Theoretically, “Russian Houses” — a project of the Russian Cooperation Agency (Rossotrudnichestvo) — are created for the same purpose. There’s such an office in Baku too. However, the problem lies in the fact that, in practice, “Russian Houses,” like other structures of Rossotrudnichestvo, are involved not only in promoting Russian culture but also in outright espionage.
Tweets – Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) / Twitter
28 January 2025 23:20 (UTC+04:00)
Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Azerbaijan Mikhail Yevdokimov has been summoned to Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Azernews reports, via the ministry.
During the meeting, it was noted that the publication of disinformation articles and reports targeting our country by the Russian press, as well as by some official circles in Russia, has created misunderstandings and contradicts the content and spirit of the Declaration on Allied Interaction between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation.
It was recalled that the results of the preliminary investigation into the tragic crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane are known, work is underway to finalize the investigation, and Russia has openly stated its expectations regarding the incident.
As regards the information about the “Russian House” in the local press, it was stated that this was not an official position and that the activities of such organizations in the territory of Azerbaijan are based on the principle of reciprocity and must be carried out under the requirements of the legislation.
Yesterday, Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Rahman Mustafayev met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin. While the official statement by Russia’s Foreign Ministry said that they had ‘invited’ Mustafayev, some Azerbaijani media outlets wrote that he had been ‘summoned’.
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov has not yet commented on the circumstances of the meeting.
Although relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have long been stable, as illustrated by a high-profile visit from Russian President Vladimir Putin to Baku in August 2024, the crash of a Azerbaijan Airlines flight in December — which Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said was Russia’s fault — has caused those bilateral ties to fray.
The official web page of Russia’s Foreign Ministry stated that Galuzin had invited Mustafaev to discuss several issues between Azerbaijan and Russia. The Russian side emphasised the ‘absolute importance of building relations between Russia and Azerbaijan in the spirit of strategic partnership and alliance based on the declaration signed at the highest level on 22 February 2022, in the national interests of both states’.
‘In this regard, bewilderment was expressed over a series of recent anti-Russian publications in the Azerbaijani media, as well as in relation to the disinformation campaign against the Russian House in Baku. The absolute groundlessness of the accusations made was noted’, the ministry’s press release said.
The Russian House, known formally as Rossotrudnichestvo, is a state-funded organisation intended to administer foreign aid, promote Russian culture, and support Russians living abroad. As with other Russian government organisations, it was sanctioned by the EU after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Azerbaijan’s Russian House was established in July 1997, and has its headquarters in Baku, with two additional offices located in Khachmaz and Ganja.
On Friday, the pro-government media outlet Baku TV aired a report accusing the Russian House in Baku of engaging in anti-Azerbaijani espionage activities under the guise of cultural and humanitarian work. The report, citing ‘trusted sources’ and without disclosing details, alleged that the Russian cultural centre has been fostering inter-ethnic discord and operating as a hub for intelligence activities.
According to Azerbaijani journalist and political columnist Rauf Mirgadirov, the Russian House has been operating in Azerbaijan for many years and argued that it is no secret the Russian House serves the purposes of Russian intelligence.
Mirgadirov told OC Media that the proliferation of Russian agents of influence in Azerbaijan has long been openly acknowledged by the government and pro-government media.
‘If I am not mistaken, around two years ago, journalists released the names of the journalists and the NGOs who were, at the very least, agents of Russian influence. This was clear many years ago, and now we are enemies with Russia’, Mirgadirov said.
Even as bilateral ties worsen, Mirgadirov said that Aliyev would not let Azerbaijan’s relationship with Russia completely deteriorate.
‘Now, Azerbaijan’s relationship is also not good with the EU, but the economic relationship continues. It is not in Aliyev’s favour to also destroy the entire relationship with Russia. Aliyev would only turn away from Russia if Russia lost the [full-scale war with Ukraine], [or] if the government in Russia would be changed’.
The fatal Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in December, which many have said was the fault of Russian air defence missiles in Chechnya, was likely the highest-profile event that has worsened relations between the two countries.
Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry has so far not commented on the meeting between Mustafeyav and Galuzin, but the pro-government media outlet APA reported on it, mentioning only that the discussion concerned the plane crash. APA’s brief article highlighted that Russia’s Foreign Ministry had said there is a ‘need to complete the official investigation and publish its results to clarify all the circumstances of the tragedy’.
Mirgadirov also said that tension between Azerbaijan and Russia will continue for some time.
‘But then there will probably be some high-level discussions, and as a result of these discussions, there will supposedly be some statement about resolving the existing differences. And I would not say that the situation will return to normal, but the level of military action will not reach the point of conflict. This is in the interests of Ilham Aliyev’, Mirgadirov said.
President Donald Trump revealed on his first day that he may be closer to delivering on a campaign promise than skeptics believed. As we show in our new, original economic analysis, Trump has the levers to force Vladimir Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war promptly if he dispenses with the Biden Administration’s tepid, inconsistent economic pressure.
On Trump’s first day in office, he publicly addressed his views on Putin’s invasion of Ukraine for the first time in weeks, during his Oval Office press conference. “I think Zelensky wants a peace deal, but I don’t know Putin wants a deal,” Trump said, “I think Russia is going to be in real trouble….I think Putin’s destroying Russia.”
Trump is right. As Russia falters on the battlefield, approaching 700,000 casualties, its reliance upon North Korean troops and Iranian drones, Putin has not advanced his military agenda and Putin’s war-fueled economy has drained the nation’s vitality across sectors. Putin has cut reinvestment in its industrial base and seized control of much private enterprise, cannibalizing its once mighty industrial strength. In short, he’s kept the furnace of Russia’s energy burning by tossing in the living room furniture.
Russia is in real trouble as its economy implodes, and Putin is destroying Russia. And even more importantly, the return of Trump could send Russia’s economy off the cliff, and Trump’s return could deal the death blow to the teetering Putin regime. Trump today said his sanctions had cut off Iran’s ability to finance the proxy terrorism of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis which Biden’s muted sanctions enforcement allowed. Similarly, with proper sanction enforcement, the Russian economy will be circling the drain by Easter.
Trump Issues a Series of Presidential Actions on Day 1
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That Trump’s return could end Putin’s rule seemed unimaginable weeks ago. Many supporters of Ukraine openly feared that Trump might force a bad peace deal on Ukraine tantamount to surrender, amid Trump’s oft-declared intention to “end” the war by his first day in office. But just as Trump has shown a willingness to evolve on business issues once he learned the facts, it appears Trump has similarly, pivoted his position on Putin once he learned just how weak the Russian economy really is.
Simply put, the Russian economy is imploding—with Putin cannibalizing the productive economy to fund his war machine. If Putin loses the spigot of windfall oil revenues which has been propping him up the last three years, then the Putin regime will almost certainly collapse. Putin has already drawn down Russia’s rainy day funds by depleting its once-formidable foreign exchange reserves, and nobody is willing to fund Russian government deficits by buying unwanted Russian bonds. Meanwhile, the Russian Ruble is collapsing as a currency that even China is dumping, the Russian central bank has run out of firepower, and Putin cannot cut spending unless he defunds his own expensive war machine. Russia cannot make up for lost oil exports as it has already lost 90% of its erstwhile natural gas exports, thanks to Europe finally moving away from Russian piped gas reliance. The country brings very little to the global economy other than energy exports.
Oil revenues represent a potent choke point over the Russian economy, and Trump has grasped the strength of this leverage in a way the Biden Administration did not. The outlook for Russia’s oil sales is now very different, and Russia’s outright economic collapse appears far more likely now. With Trump’s pledges to bring down oil prices and increase US domestic oil production by 3 million barrels a day, the world will no longer need Russian oil production the same way, and Putin will be feeling the pain because he will be selling at or below breakeven prices.
According to Saudi Aramco, the breakeven for drilling Russian oil is a whopping $44 per barrel, the highest of any major oil producer and twice as much as the cost of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, and other major oil producers—thanks in part to the inaccessibility of major Russian oil fields deep in the Arctic.
So between his elevated breakeven cost of $44 per barrel to drill oil, and expenses which we estimate to be around $20-$30 per barrel to get that oil to market, Putin will be losing money when the price of oil falls below current levels. Even beyond any pain Putin suffers from the price of oil falling organically; if Trump imposes any additional sanctions and export restrictions on Russian oil companies, as Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent advocated for during his confirmation hearing, then Putin will be all but begging for relief as his economy implodes with export revenues throttled.
History reminds us that this playbook of economic pressure on Russia has worked successfully before. Cold War ended largely through the unexpected implosion of Russia’s economy—which many experts did not see coming, but a vulnerability which Ronald Reagan, a leader defined more by intuition than careful analysis of the issues, grasped. Now, Trump has an opportunity to puncture Putin’s propaganda balloon and suffocate Russia’s economy to the point of collapse, if he chooses to do so.
At left, President Donald Trump speaks to reporters Saturday about his vision for a ‘clean out’ of Gaza, which would see its residents expelled to Egypt, Jordan, and other countries. | Trump photo: AP / Real estate ad: Harey Zahav via X
President Donald Trump proved that he’s no peacemaker when it comes to Israel’s genocidal war. He floated the idea of forcible expulsion for Palestinians Saturday, saying that Jordan, Egypt, and other Arab nations should take in refugees to “just clean out” the destroyed Gaza Strip and create a “clean slate.”
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